Asylum Grant Rates and Statistics UK 2025-2026

Understanding asylum statistics helps both applicants and legal advisers set realistic expectations. Our Bolton asylum solicitors review the latest UK asylum data for 2025–2026.

Asylum Application Numbers

In the year ending June 2025, 111,084 people claimed asylum in the UK — the highest number since records began in 1979. The largest national groups were Pakistani (16%), Afghan (8%), Iranian (7%), Vietnamese (6%) and Eritrean (6%). In terms of nationalities represented in Greater Manchester and Bolton, Pakistani and Afghan applicants are among the most common.

Initial Decision Grant Rates

In 2025, 42% of asylum decisions at initial decision stage resulted in a grant of protection (refugee status or humanitarian protection). This represents a decline from the peak grant rate of 76% in 2022, which reflected the processing backlog clearance of cases from countries such as Afghanistan, Eritrea and Sudan where protection was widely accepted.

Appeal Success Rates

Where asylum claims are refused at initial decision and the applicant appeals, the First-tier Tribunal allows approximately 43–48% of asylum appeals. This high success rate highlights the importance of the appeal stage and the variable quality of initial Home Office decisions. Legal representation at appeals significantly improves outcomes.

Country-Specific Patterns

Success rates vary significantly by nationality. Eritrean nationals have historically high grant rates. Afghan applicants have complex, changing grant rates reflecting country guidance developments. Pakistani asylum claims are assessed more stringently due to the high volume of claims and Pakistan’s formal status as a safe country, though protection can be established where genuinely at-risk individuals present compelling evidence.